Does repeated activity increase the probability of a specific event happening?

Suppose the chances you die from a skydive are 0.1.

If you repeat this 10 times, the chances you die from any one of the dives is

$$1 - (0.9)^{10} = 0.6513...$$

So even though the probability of dying on a specific dive does not change, by repeatedly skydiving you are increasing your overall chances of dying.

So if someone says they will skydive once in 2011, the chances that they are alive (not counting other factors) in 2012 is 90%, but if someone else dives 10 times, the chances they are alive in 2012 is just 35%.

Tags:

Probability

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