Does the speed of light in vacuum define the universal speed limit?

It's the second one: the reason the speed $299792458\ \mathrm{m/s} = c$ is special is because it's the universal speed limit. Light always travels at the speed $c$, whatever that limit may be.

The reason there is a "universal speed limit" at all has to do with the structure of spacetime. Even in a universe without light, that speed limit would still be there. Or to be more precise: if you took the theoretical description of our universe, and remove light in the most straightforward possible way, it wouldn't affect $c$.

There are many other things that depend on the speed $c$. A particularly important one is that it's the "speed of causality": one event happening at a particular time and place can't affect another event unless there's a way to get from the first event to the second without exceeding that speed. (This is sort of another way of saying it has to do with the structure of spacetime.)


Even if nothing propagated at the speed $c$, it would still be a universal speed limit, and we could still measure it.

In fact, it's not impossible that light has a (very tiny) mass in reality. If it does, that wouldn't change anything about special relativity. It would make teaching it even more of a nightmare than it already is, because we'd have to deal with a century of textbooks and popularizations that made the mistake of calling $c$ "the speed of light", but other than that it wouldn't change anything.


Above all, speed of light is the speed of propagation of fields through space. While light may be slowed down when crossing matter, fields (electromagnetic fields, gravity) are always propagated at c. One of the consequences is the "speed limit for causality" mentioned by DavidZ and the speed limit for transmission of information.