Finding the probability that someone has the disease, given they test positive on two tests

The conditional probability (or Bayes's rule) must be: $$P(D\ |\ T_1\cap T_2) = \frac{P(D\cap T_1\cap T_2)}{P(T_1\ \color{red}{\cap}\ T_2)}=\frac{P(D)\cdot P(T_1|D)\cdot P(T_2|D\cap T_1)}{P(T_1\ \cap\ T_2)}=\\ \frac{0.01\cdot 0.95^2}{0.01\cdot 0.95^2+0.99\cdot 0.05^2}\approx 0.7848.$$

Tags:

Probability

Bayes Theorem

Conditional Probability

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