Python implementation of the Wilson Score Interval?
I think this one has a wrong wilson call, because if you have 1 up 0 down you get NaN because you can't do a sqrt
on the negative value.
The correct one can be found when looking at the ruby example from the article How not to sort by average page:
return ((phat + z*z/(2*n) - z * sqrt((phat*(1-phat)+z*z/(4*n))/n))/(1+z*z/n))
Reddit uses the Wilson score interval for comment ranking, an explanation and python implementation can be found here
#Rewritten code from /r2/r2/lib/db/_sorts.pyx
from math import sqrt
def confidence(ups, downs):
n = ups + downs
if n == 0:
return 0
z = 1.0 #1.44 = 85%, 1.96 = 95%
phat = float(ups) / n
return ((phat + z*z/(2*n) - z * sqrt((phat*(1-phat)+z*z/(4*n))/n))/(1+z*z/n))
The accepted solution seems to use a hard-coded z-value (best for performance).
In the event that you wanted a direct python equivalent of the ruby formula from the blogpost with a dynamic z-value (based on the confidence interval):
import math
import scipy.stats as st
def ci_lower_bound(pos, n, confidence):
if n == 0:
return 0
z = st.norm.ppf(1 - (1 - confidence) / 2)
phat = 1.0 * pos / n
return (phat + z * z / (2 * n) - z * math.sqrt((phat * (1 - phat) + z * z / (4 * n)) / n)) / (1 + z * z / n)
To get the Wilson CI without continuity correction, you can use proportion_confint
in statsmodels.stats.proportion
. To get the Wilson CI with continuity correction, you can use the code below.
# cf.
# [1] R. G. Newcombe. Two-sided confidence intervals for the single proportion, 1998
# [2] R. G. Newcombe. Interval Estimation for the difference between independent proportions: comparison of eleven methods, 1998
import numpy as np
from statsmodels.stats.proportion import proportion_confint
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #
def propci_wilson_cc(count, nobs, alpha=0.05):
# get confidence limits for proportion
# using wilson score method w/ cont correction
# i.e. Method 4 in Newcombe [1];
# verified via Table 1
from scipy import stats
n = nobs
p = count/n
q = 1.-p
z = stats.norm.isf(alpha / 2.)
z2 = z**2
denom = 2*(n+z2)
num = 2.*n*p+z2-1.-z*np.sqrt(z2-2-1./n+4*p*(n*q+1))
ci_l = num/denom
num = 2.*n*p+z2+1.+z*np.sqrt(z2+2-1./n+4*p*(n*q-1))
ci_u = num/denom
if p == 0:
ci_l = 0.
elif p == 1:
ci_u = 1.
return ci_l, ci_u
def dpropci_wilson_nocc(a,m,b,n,alpha=0.05):
# get confidence limits for difference in proportions
# a/m - b/n
# using wilson score method WITHOUT cont correction
# i.e. Method 10 in Newcombe [2]
# verified via Table II
theta = a/m - b/n
l1, u1 = proportion_confint(count=a, nobs=m, alpha=0.05, method='wilson')
l2, u2 = proportion_confint(count=b, nobs=n, alpha=0.05, method='wilson')
ci_u = theta + np.sqrt((a/m-u1)**2+(b/n-l2)**2)
ci_l = theta - np.sqrt((a/m-l1)**2+(b/n-u2)**2)
return ci_l, ci_u
def dpropci_wilson_cc(a,m,b,n,alpha=0.05):
# get confidence limits for difference in proportions
# a/m - b/n
# using wilson score method w/ cont correction
# i.e. Method 11 in Newcombe [2]
# verified via Table II
theta = a/m - b/n
l1, u1 = propci_wilson_cc(count=a, nobs=m, alpha=alpha)
l2, u2 = propci_wilson_cc(count=b, nobs=n, alpha=alpha)
ci_u = theta + np.sqrt((a/m-u1)**2+(b/n-l2)**2)
ci_l = theta - np.sqrt((a/m-l1)**2+(b/n-u2)**2)
return ci_l, ci_u
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #
# single proportion testing
# these come from Newcombe [1] (Table 1)
a_vec = np.array([81, 15, 0, 1])
m_vec = np.array([263, 148, 20, 29])
for (a,m) in zip(a_vec,m_vec):
l1, u1 = proportion_confint(count=a, nobs=m, alpha=0.05, method='wilson')
l2, u2 = propci_wilson_cc(count=a, nobs=m, alpha=0.05)
print(a,m,l1,u1,' ',l2,u2)
# # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # # #
# difference in proportions testing
# these come from Newcombe [2] (Table II)
a_vec = np.array([56,9,6,5,0,0,10,10],dtype=float)
m_vec = np.array([70,10,7,56,10,10,10,10],dtype=float)
b_vec = np.array([48,3,2,0,0,0,0,0],dtype=float)
n_vec = np.array([80,10,7,29,20,10,20,10],dtype=float)
print('\nWilson without CC')
for (a,m,b,n) in zip(a_vec,m_vec,b_vec,n_vec):
l, u = dpropci_wilson_nocc(a,m,b,n,alpha=0.05)
print('{:2.0f}/{:2.0f}-{:2.0f}/{:2.0f} ; {:6.4f} ; {:8.4f}, {:8.4f}'.format(a,m,b,n,a/m-b/n,l,u))
print('\nWilson with CC')
for (a,m,b,n) in zip(a_vec,m_vec,b_vec,n_vec):
l, u = dpropci_wilson_cc(a,m,b,n,alpha=0.05)
print('{:2.0f}/{:2.0f}-{:2.0f}/{:2.0f} ; {:6.4f} ; {:8.4f}, {:8.4f}'.format(a,m,b,n,a/m-b/n,l,u))
HTH