Use Robocopy to copy only changed files?

You can use robocopy to copy files with an archive flag and reset the attribute. Use /M command line, this is my backup script with few extra tricks.

This script needs NirCmd tool to keep mouse moving so that my machine won't fall into sleep. Script is using a lockfile to tell when backup script is completed and mousemove.bat script is closed. You may leave this part out.

Another is 7-Zip tool for splitting virtualbox files smaller than 4GB files, my destination folder is still FAT32 so this is mandatory. I should use NTFS disk but haven't converted backup disks yet.

backup-robocopy.bat

@REM https://technet.microsoft.com/en-us/library/cc733145.aspx
@REM http://www.skonet.com/articles_archive/robocopy_job_template.aspx

set basedir=%~dp0
del /Q %basedir%backup-robocopy-log.txt

set dt=%date%_%time:~0,8%
echo "%dt% robocopy started" > %basedir%backup-robocopy-lock.txt
start "Keep system awake" /MIN /LOW  cmd.exe /C %basedir%backup-robocopy-movemouse.bat

set dest=E:\backup

call :BACKUP "Program Files\MariaDB 5.5\data"
call :BACKUP "projects"
call :BACKUP "Users\Myname"

:SPLIT
@REM Split +4GB file to multiple files to support FAT32 destination disk,
@REM splitted files must be stored outside of the robocopy destination folder.
set srcfile=C:\Users\Myname\VirtualBox VMs\Ubuntu\Ubuntu.vdi
set dstfile=%dest%\Users\Myname\VirtualBox VMs\Ubuntu\Ubuntu.vdi
set dstfile2=%dest%\non-robocopy\Users\Myname\VirtualBox VMs\Ubuntu\Ubuntu.vdi
IF NOT EXIST "%dstfile%" (
  IF NOT EXIST "%dstfile2%.7z.001" attrib +A "%srcfile%"
  dir /b /aa "%srcfile%" && (
    del /Q "%dstfile2%.7z.*"
    c:\apps\commands\7za.exe -mx0 -v4000m u "%dstfile2%.7z"  "%srcfile%"
    attrib -A "%srcfile%"
    @set dt=%date%_%time:~0,8%
    @echo %dt% Splitted %srcfile% >> %basedir%backup-robocopy-log.txt
  )
)

del /Q %basedir%backup-robocopy-lock.txt
GOTO :END


:BACKUP
TITLE Backup %~1
robocopy.exe "c:\%~1" "%dest%\%~1" /JOB:%basedir%backup-robocopy-job.rcj
GOTO :EOF


:END
@set dt=%date%_%time:~0,8%
@echo %dt% robocopy completed >> %basedir%backup-robocopy-log.txt
@echo %dt% robocopy completed
@pause

backup-robocopy-job.rcj

:: Robocopy Job Parameters
:: robocopy.exe "c:\projects" "E:\backup\projects" /JOB:backup-robocopy-job.rcj


:: Source Directory (this is given in command line)
::/SD:c:\examplefolder

:: Destination Directory (this is given in command line)
::/DD:E:\backup\examplefolder

:: Include files matching these names
/IF
    *.*

/M      :: copy only files with the Archive attribute and reset it.
/XJD    :: eXclude Junction points for Directories.

:: Exclude Directories
/XD
    C:\projects\bak
    C:\projects\old
    C:\project\tomcat\logs
    C:\project\tomcat\work
    C:\Users\Myname\.eclipse
    C:\Users\Myname\.m2
    C:\Users\Myname\.thumbnails
    C:\Users\Myname\AppData
    C:\Users\Myname\Favorites
    C:\Users\Myname\Links
    C:\Users\Myname\Saved Games
    C:\Users\Myname\Searches

:: Exclude files matching these names
/XF 
    C:\Users\Myname\ntuser.dat  
    *.~bpl

:: Exclude files with any of the given Attributes set
:: S=System, H=Hidden
/XA:SH      

:: Copy options
/S          :: copy Subdirectories, but not empty ones.
/E          :: copy subdirectories, including Empty ones.
/COPY:DAT   :: what to COPY for files (default is /COPY:DAT).
/DCOPY:T    :: COPY Directory Timestamps.
/PURGE      :: delete dest files/dirs that no longer exist in source.

:: Retry Options
/R:0        :: number of Retries on failed copies: default 1 million.
/W:1        :: Wait time between retries: default is 30 seconds.

:: Logging Options (LOG+ append)
/NDL        :: No Directory List - don't log directory names.
/NP         :: No Progress - don't display percentage copied.
/TEE        :: output to console window, as well as the log file.
/LOG+:c:\apps\commands\backup-robocopy-log.txt :: append to logfile

backup-robocopy-movemouse.bat

@echo off
@REM Move mouse to prevent maching from sleeping 
@rem while running a backup script

echo Keep system awake while robocopy is running,
echo this script moves a mouse once in a while.

set basedir=%~dp0
set IDX=0

:LOOP
IF NOT EXIST "%basedir%backup-robocopy-lock.txt" GOTO :EOF
SET /A IDX=%IDX% + 1
IF "%IDX%"=="240" (
  SET IDX=0
  echo Move mouse to keep system awake
  c:\apps\commands\nircmdc.exe sendmouse move 5 5
  c:\apps\commands\nircmdc.exe sendmouse move -5 -5
)
c:\apps\commands\nircmdc.exe wait 1000
GOTO :LOOP

To answer all your questions:

Can I use ROBOCOPY for this?

Yes, RC should fit your requirements (simplicity, only copy what needed)

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What exactly does it mean to exclude?

It will exclude copying - RC calls it skipping

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Would the /XO option copy only newer files, not files of the same age?

Yes, RC will only copy newer files. Files of the same age will be skipped.

(the correct command would be robocopy C:\SourceFolder D:\DestinationFolder ABC.dll /XO)

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Maybe in your case using the /MIR option could be useful. In general RC is rather targeted at directories and directory trees than single files.