What is the winning strategy in this pebble game?
The positions which are a win for the second player are those with:
an even number of pebbles in odd-numbered squares, and
an even number of pebbles in even-numbered squares.
Indeed, from a position in this set $P$, any move will be to a position not in that set, whereas from a position not in that set one can always make a move to a position in that set (if only the number of pebbles in the odd-numbered squares is odd, you can remove one, similarly for the even-numbered, and if both are odd, choose any pebble — that is not at the very leftmost square — and either more it to the left if that square is unoccupied or remove it along with the one to the left if it is).
So, systematically moving to a position in $P$ (as described in the parenthesis in the previous paragraph) provides a winning strategy provided one starts with a position not in $P$.
We can go further and find the nim-value of any position of this game.
Theorem. The nim-value of a position in this game is the Nim-sum of the contributions of its pebbles, where
- Pebbles in odd-numbered squares contribute $1$.
- Pebbles in even-numbered squares contribute $2$.
(Here we count the leftmost square as the $1^{st}$ square.)
Corollary. As in Gro-Tsen's answer, the winning positions (with nim-value $0$) are the ones with both an even number of pebbles in odd-numbered squares and an even number of pebbles in even-numbered squares.
Corollary. All positions have nim-value $0, 1, 2,$ or $3$.
The proof relies on the following idea, which is encoded in the lemma below.
Key Insight. A position in this pebble game is equivalent to the sum of an individual game for each pebble with its own private track.
Lemma. Given a position $P$ of pebbles $p_1, p_2, ... p_n$, consider the games $P_i$ which each consist of only the single pebble $p_i$ in the same square. Then $P$ is equivalent to $\sum_i P_i$.
Proof. To check this, we need only show that the game $P + \sum_i P_i$ is a zero game, by demonstrating a winning strategy for the second player. So consider the possible moves for the first player in the game $P + \sum_i P_i$:
If the first player removes two adjacent pebbles $p_i$ and $p_{i+1}$ in $P$, the second player can respond by moving the pebble in $P_{i+1}$ to the left, leaving behind two copies of $P_i$, which nim-cancel.
If the first player removes any one pebble, the second player responds by removing the corresponding pebble.
If the first player moves a pebble to the left in $P$, the second player responds by moving the pebble to the left in $P_i$.
If the first player moves a pebble to the left in a $P_i$, the second player responds by moving the corresponding pebble to the left in $P$. If that move is blocked by a pebble directly to the left, that's fine -- the second player instead removes those two pebbles, noting that there are now two copies of $P_{i-1}$ that nim-cancel out.
Proof of Theorem. Because of the Lemma, we need only consider the case of a single pebble in position $i$ (where position $1$ is the leftmost square). By induction on $i$,
- There is always the option to remove the pebble, an option with nim-value $0$.
- If $i$ is odd, there may also be the option to move the pebble to the left, which is an even-numbered square with nim-value $2$. Thus the nim-value in the odd case is $mex(0,2) = 1$.
- If $i$ is even, there is always also the option to move the pebble to the left, which is an odd-numbered square with nim-value $1$. Thus the nim-value in the even case is $mex(0,1) = 2$.
How to Evaluate Positions.
Example 1. The nim-value of the position in the question
. . O . . . O O . O . . . O O . . . . . O
is found quickly by seeing that a pebble in an odd-numbered position contributes nim-value 1, and a pebble in an even-numbered position contributes nim-value 2. So using this mask:
. . O . . . O O . O . . . O O . . . . . O
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1
yields the Nim-sum
1 +1+2 +2 +2+1 +1
which equals 2, so removing any of the even-numbered pebbles (the "2s") is a win.
Example 2. You are playing the sum of the following two positions:
O . O . . . O O . O + O . O O
Evaluate each one with the mask:
O . O . . . O O . O + O . O O
1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2 1 2
1 +1 +1+2 +2 + 1 +1+2
This has a Nim-sum of 3, so moving any pebble to the left or removing any two adjacent pebbles (in either component!) is a win.