What is the chance to get a parking ticket in half an hour if the chance to get a ticket is 80% in 1 hour?

It really depends on what model is assumed. However, if the idea is that no matter how long you leave your car there, you have a $20$% chance of getting through any given hour unscathed, you can treat it as an exponential decay problem. Let $p(t)$ be the probability that you do not get a ticket in the first $t$ hours. Then $p(1)=0.2$, $p(2)=0.2^2$ (a $20$% chance of making it through the first hour times a $20$% chance of making it through the second), and in general $p(t)=0.2^t$. The probability of not getting a ticket in the first half hour is then $p(1/2)=0.2^{1/2}=\sqrt{0.2}\approx 0.4472$, and the probability that you do get a ticket in the first half hour is about $1-0.4472=0.5528$.


If my probability of getting a parking ticket in a half hour is T, then

$$T+(1-T)T$$

are the odds I got one in 1 hour. The first term says that I got it in the 1st half hour (so it doesn't matter what happens after that), and the second term says that I got it in the 2nd half hour (so not in the first). Solving and taking the sensible solution:

$$2T-T^2=.8\implies T^2-2T+.8$$

$$T=1-\sqrt{.2}$$

Which are roughly $55.3\%$ odds in a half hour.


Another way of looking at the exponential model: If $P$ is the probability you get lucky and don't get ticketed in the first 30 minutes, then $P^2$ is the chance you luck out twice in a row and don't get ticketed in the first hour. You know $P^2 = 0.2$. So $P$ is the square root of that or $0.447$. So the chance you are unlucky in the first 30 minutes and get a ticket is $1 - 0.447 = 0.553$ or $55.3$ percent.

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Probability