How does having baby affect tenure track offer or tenure track success?

(Just to put my experience first: I'm a man, and had my first child about 7 months ago, around the same time I went up for tenure.)

This is one of those "your mileage may vary pretty massively" questions. My general recommendation is that it's better to have to the baby once you're more established in your job, but there are so many moving parts, no single recommendation can work.

Some people have a less productive year the first year they are on the tenure-track (I don't think I did), but in many disciplines, that's because they are assembling a lab, which I'm not sure you want to be doing with a new baby either. In my opinion, the minuses you list are pretty big.

If I were going on the job market as a pregnant woman, I would be very worried about unconscious discrimination. I don't think you would have problems with this most places, but it often just takes a couple of people in a department to sink your candidacy, and they could be influenced by the pregnancy without knowing it.

I think also you're neglecting the fact that if you have your baby after starting your new job, you will probably be eligible for maternity leave. Most places I of in practice give a semester of maternity or paternity leave, though with some caveats (at my current institution, it's usually possible to get a semester off teaching, but with other service duties still required after the first few weeks). I've known people who had babies late in postdocs who really lamented missing out on this.

The matter of your reputation with colleagues is pretty hard to game out. I'm sure there do exist departments where showing up either with a new baby or immediately becoming pregnant might make a bad impression. This would mean your colleagues are jerks, but unfortunately, it's hard to guarantee your colleagues won't be jerks. I feel like it's likely to be a wash though, since colleagues can just as easily be weird about the fact that you have a baby, as that you are pregnant.