TikZ custom "to path" with curved edges
Completely reimplemented and using explicit Bézier curve paths using a coordinate (passed as argument, which has a default value) to determine the curviness. Hopefully comments explain everything.
\documentclass[tikz,border=5]{standalone}
\usetikzlibrary{calc}
\tikzset{manifold/.style={to path={
% Create new coordinates to save typing
(\tikztostart) coordinate (@1)
(\tikztostart |- \tikztotarget) coordinate (@2)
(\tikztotarget) coordinate (@3)
(\tikztostart -| \tikztotarget) coordinate (@4)
% Get 'transformed' points
(@1) coordinate (@@1)
($(@2)!0.1!(@4)$) coordinate (@@2)
(@3) coordinate (@@3)
($(@4)!0.1!(@2)$) coordinate (@@4)
% Calculate \manifoldsize for scaling
let \p1=(@1),\p2=(@3),\n1={veclen(\x2-\x1,\y2-\y1)} in
\pgfextra{\edef\manifoldsize{\n1}}
% Use coordinate passed in as #1
let \p1=#1 in
%
(@@1) .. controls ++( \x1, \y1) and ++(-\x1,-\y1) ..
(@@2) .. controls ++( \x1,-\y1) and ++(-\x1, \y1) ..
(@@3) .. controls ++(-\x1,-\y1) and ++( \x1, \y1) ..
(@@4) .. controls ++(-\x1, \y1) and ++( \x1,-\y1) .. cycle (@@3)
}}, manifold/.default={(45:\manifoldsize/4)}}
\begin{document}
\begin{tikzpicture}[ultra thick, line join=round]
\draw [purple] (-2,-2) to [manifold] (5,4);
\draw [orange] (0,0) to [manifold] (3,2);
\end{tikzpicture}
\end{document}